Copper prices react positively to growth surprises in China.
Stock prices in LAC react to commodity prices' shocks.
Commodity prices can impact sovereign spreads.
A FAVAR model can beat three simple benchmarks between 1 to 12 months ahead.
For one-quarter ahead forecasting horizon, time series models are an appropriate choice, while for longer horizons the reduced-form models seem to be the most suitable.
Earthquakes not always generate inflation in the short term.